(Updated with my response. - promoted by Kyle Michaelis)
Partially leaked polls don't stay only partially leaked for long. Swing State Project got a hold of the poll that we first heard about the other day saying that Jim Esch was trailing Lee Terry by single digits. The poll, commissioned by Anzalone Liszt has the following on the second districts House race-
| Jim Esch | 38% |
| Lee Terry | 47% |
This polling just shows that Terry is vulnerable - notice that Terry is still running below 50%. Once fall campaigning begins, the race should tighten even further. This just goes to show that as long as the Esch campaign runs well funded, then yes, Lee Terry will go down.
But that's not all. The poll also asked respondents who they were voting for President. This race is even tighter.
| Barack Obama | 42% |
| John McCain | 46% |
We all knew back in Februrary that Senator Obama would have a chance to take the second and maybe even the first congressional districts, but the race is this tight even before the conventions.
Still, the 4% difference between Esch's numbers and Obama's numbers in the district show that yes, there are some Obama-Terry voters out there, but you have to think that group is winnable for Esch given who they are voting for President.
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This is Kyle. With apologies to Scott, I really have to jump in here just to correct one statement. The truth is that the above numbers do not lend credibility to the myth of the Obama-Terry voter. All these numbers show is that there's 1% of the vote that's currently supporting Lee Terry but hasn't yet committed to John McCain.
My guess is that this 1% might be among the most conservative voters who have long-standing doubts about McCain for occasionally breaking with the party line in his previous incarnation before selling out completely during his campaign for the presidency. If they don't come home to McCain, though, this 1% could just as well go to Libertarian Bob Barr as any other alternative.
What we do see is that Esch has a little bit of work ahead of him winning over the full Obama vote. But, there's no reason at this point to think that can't be corrected entirely by name recognition. Again - I repeat - the Obama-Terry vote remains nothing more than a figment of Lee Terry's imagination. |
