Months before Scott Kleeb even declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, November 2007 polling put him down 28% - 59% in a hypothetical match-up against Mike Johanns. Six months later, Rasmussen Reports has released the first polling numbers for this race since both candidates clinched their parties' nominations in last Tuesday's primary election. This May 15th poll of 500 Likely Voters (with a +/- 4% margin of error) put the race at:
| Scott Kleeb | 40% |
| Mike Johanns | 55% |
While these numbers aren't yet good enough to put this race in the national spotlight, they are as good as we could have possibly hoped. Most importantly, they should be very encouraging for the Kleeb campaign in light of those earlier November 2007 numbers. Since then, Kleeb has picked up 12 points while Johanns has actually seen his support wither since he's begun actively campaigning. If that same trend continues, we'll be looking at a race that's simply too close to call in November.
Right now, you can see the fault lines for this race in each candidate's favorability ratings:
| Scott Kleeb | Mike Johanns |
| Very Favorable | 17% | 27%
|
| Somewhat Favorable | 39% | 38%
|
| Somewhat Unfavorable | 23% | 20% |
| Very Unfavorable | 13% | 12% |
| Not Sure | 9% | 3% |
Last November's polling showed Kleeb with 28% very or somewhat favorable and only 9% very or somewhat unfavorable. That left Kleeb with 63% of voters who then had no opinion of him. He's now found favor with 56% of voters, as opposed to the 65% who feel positively towards Johanns.
Considering that Johanns has twice been elected Governor, it's understandable that he'd start the race with this advantage. But, the Johanns campaign has to be fearful that these numbers are going to drop dramatically when Nebraska voters start tying his record to the very unpopular Bush Administration and the failed Bush agenda Johanns served with such unwavering, unthinking devotion.
There is one additional nugget of information provided by Rassmussen Reports that is very, very important:
Johanns is supported by 78% of Republicans, Kleeb by 72% of Democrats, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.
The fact that Kleeb is running even against Johanns with independent voters shows that his three month old campaign is already connecting where it needs to, with plenty of room for movement as Kleeb wins over the conservative but common sense voters who are the deciding voice in Nebraska politics. |
